by Xinhua Writers James Gashumba, Liu Youmin

KIGALI, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- The United States earlier this month announced the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) through the end of 2026, bringing relief to African countries seeking to expand their exports to the global market. But that optimism quickly faded as uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy prompted exporters to hold back from expanding their businesses.

According to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the extension applies retroactively from Sept. 30, 2025, when the program expired. Implemented in 2000, AGOA provides duty-free treatment for selected products such as textiles, agricultural goods and vehicles from designated sub-Saharan African countries. However, uncertainty over the future of AGOA, the political conditions attached to it, and broader U.S. tariff policies have clouded the outlook for the program.

UNPREDICTABLE POLICY

The U.S. Congress initially approved a three-year extension of AGOA. However, the legislation was amended by the Senate to a one-year extension before reaching the president's desk. While the move was welcomed by African exporters, it has left the long-term future of U.S.-Africa trade shrouded in uncertainty.

At the same time, U.S. tariffs on African countries have also undermined the expected benefits of AGOA. Last year, Washington imposed tariffs on African countries, ranging from 10 percent on Kenya to 30 percent on goods from South Africa. U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday announced a new global tariff of 15 percent, a day after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that his sweeping tariffs, imposed under a law intended for national emergencies, were illegal.

Teddy Kaberuka, a Rwandan economic analyst, said it is highly contradictory that, on the one hand, the United States imposes protectionist tariffs, while, on the other hand, it restores AGOA.

Experts said that predictable market access underpins macroeconomic resilience, as stable access enables governments to plan, firms to invest and workers to build livelihoods with confidence.

"Let us assume that if any country is targeting exports to America, tomorrow tariffs are imposed on its exports, the next day a list of AGOA countries is introduced, and the following day the list of beneficiaries is reduced. It is really unstable," Kaberuka said.

"Those changes affect forecasting. It does not give leeway to exporters to develop long-term plans for their investment activities," he added.

Straton Habyarimana, another Rwandan economic analyst, said it "will take some time to rebuild trust, and for the United States to be seen as a reliable partner" for trade.

U.S. non-tariff measures, including sanitary and phytosanitary standards as well as administrative hurdles, have had a significant and often restrictive impact on African nations, frequently creating higher compliance costs than traditional tariffs, Habyarimana noted.

He said these measures often act as disguised protectionism, particularly affecting agricultural and manufactured exports. They force African exporters to invest in expensive testing, certification and quality control systems, which can be prohibitive for smallholder farmers and small and medium-sized enterprises.

He noted that agricultural sectors such as coffee, cocoa and fruits face stringent pesticide residue limits and aflatoxin standards, while rules of origin and labor standards for textiles and apparel act as significant non-tariff barriers for countries such as Lesotho, Kenya and Mauritius.

Moreover, Kaberuka said the impact of AGOA is "not really significant to Africa, considering the volume of exports."

"When you look at the volume of exports from Africa to America, it has not increased as much as it should have, meaning the impact of AGOA is not really significant considering the overall export volume," he said.

"That is why the Americans can afford today to add countries to the list of eligible beneficiaries or remove others. It does not have any big effect on their economy because the volume of exports is minimal, not to mention the nature of exports to the American market. It is really on a small scale," Kaberuka said.

By adding countries to or removing them from the list, the U.S. administration can also advance its political agenda by leveraging AGOA. Countries must meet governance criteria and demonstrate commitment to economic policies as required by Washington to benefit from the act.

Those who fail to meet the criteria can be stripped of their privileges. For example, Gabon, Niger, the Central African Republic and Uganda were all removed from AGOA eligibility from January 2024 for political reasons. Washington has also threatened to remove South Africa over its foreign policy alignment with Russia and Iran, as well as Pretoria's 2023 case at the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza.

EFFORTS TO DIVERSIFY MARKETS

Amid uncertainty over AGOA's future, analysts say African countries need to deepen intra-African trade to mitigate volatility in international markets.

Countries across the continent have been striving to capitalize on opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which encompasses a market of 1.4 billion people. During the African Union Summit held on Feb. 14 and 15, leaders renewed calls to accelerate continental integration through the AfCFTA, underscoring its pivotal role in driving sustainable development and economic transformation across Africa.

"The African market itself is sufficient if African nations can increase trade among themselves. We have countries with natural resources, countries with oil, minerals. We have all the resources. Once countries harmonize their trade policies, intra-African trade should be the next frontier for African countries to develop. That is the way to go," Kaberuka said.

On cooperation with China and other countries of the Global South, Kaberuka said it is already having a significant impact across trade flows, from exports to imports.

China had been Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years by the end of 2024, and the growth of bilateral trade has continued to pick up pace in 2025.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China-Africa trade reached 314.4 billion U.S. dollars from January to November 2025, up 17.8 percent year on year, surpassing the 300-billion-dollar mark for the first time. Among the total, China's imports from Africa amounted to 112.7 billion dollars, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2 percent.

China will implement zero-tariff measures on imports from 53 African countries with diplomatic relations starting from May 1, a move that demonstrates China's firm support for Africa's independent development.

Oryem Henry Okello, Uganda's minister of state for foreign affairs in charge of international cooperation, said that the move comes at a crucial time, as tariffs are increasingly being used globally as tools of economic pressure. "It should make a difference in driving Africa's industrialization. There are a lot of African products which are looking for new markets," he said.

"China's zero-tariff policy offers a fitting alternative solution for African exporters to offset U.S. tariffs," Habyarimana said, adding that the policy is expected to increase export volumes and boost local investment. ■