ALMATY, April 10 (Xinhua) -- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Kazakhstan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.8 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027, according to its latest economic outlook published Friday.

The 2026-2027 forecast is based on an early stabilization scenario of the Middle East conflict, as oil output approaches peak production capacity, with business activity gradually normalizing, the report said.

Inflation is projected to slow to 10.4 percent in 2026 and reach 9.5 percent in 2027, as monetary conditions remain tight, tax pressures fade, and inflation expectations ease, the report added.

The state budget deficit is expected to fall from 2.7 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2026, on higher value-added tax revenues following a rate increase. The non-oil deficit is projected to decline from 7.1 percent to 4.9 percent of GDP, as transfers from the sovereign wealth fund are reduced, the ADB said.

In 2025, Kazakhstan's economy expanded by 6.5 percent, pushing the nation's GDP above 300 billion U.S. dollars for the first time. The main drivers of economic growth included industry, transport, construction and trade.

The World Bank forecasts Kazakhstan's GDP growth at 4.6 percent in 2026 and 3.9 percent in 2027. ■